A quieter forecast is good news. It is not a permission slip to forget the roof, the deductible or the route out. NOAA expects below-normal Atlantic activity to be the most likely outcome in 2026, while reminding households that a single storm can still make the season unforgettable.
What NOAA actually forecast
The May outlook called for 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes, with 70% probability ranges. NOAA assigned a 55% chance to a below-normal season, 35% to near-normal and 10% to above-normal. Those numbers describe basin-wide activity—not landfall odds for Miami, New Orleans or any other address.
Start with the insurance page nobody enjoys
Find the declarations page and write down the wind, hurricane and named-storm deductibles, not just the annual premium. Check whether flood is separate, what personal property is covered for and whether temporary living expenses have limits. Ask the insurer to explain unclear language before a warning is posted.
Photograph the ordinary
Walk through every room and record the furniture, electronics, appliances and serial numbers. Photograph the roofline, siding, windows, fence, trees and outbuildings from safe ground. Store copies somewhere the storm cannot reach, along with policy contacts and receipts for major purchases.
Prepare the house without creating a hardware-store panic
Clear drains and gutters safely, bring loose outdoor items inside, test flashlights and backup batteries, charge power banks and know how to shut off utilities if local officials direct it. Follow local emergency management guidance for water, medication, pets and evacuation—not a one-size-fits-all social-media list.
Put scams in the plan too
After damage, photograph first and sign slowly. Verify contractors, licenses and insurance through official local sources; use a written scope; and avoid anyone who demands the full price upfront or pressures you to assign insurance benefits on the doorstep. A hurried repair contract can become a second disaster.
